Sunday, November 21, 2010

Brotherhood Blows by Hot Pursuit in the Quarter Mile...and Will Not Be Caught!


We know, we know...it’s not a fair comparison! They don’t really compete with each other, but we needed a title.

Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood has really challenged our models. This title looks to be a smashing success, as we estimate first five days sales at 2.1-2.3 million units worldwide, generating more than $125 million. Moreover, we forecast that Brotherhood will finish this year selling 7.2-7.4 million units worldwide, raking in more than $432 million. Furthermore, we believe that this title has a very good chance of exceeding 10.2 million units within a year. Congrats to Ubisoft for another wonderful release!

Unfortunately, for EA, Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit may not deliver this Holiday season. We estimate the first five days sales at 1.1-1.3 million units worldwide, generating more than $65 million in sales. However, we believe that overall quarterly sales will accelerate more like an old, blue, Ford Escort, rather than a bright orange Lamborghini, forecasting between 2.8-3.2 million units worldwide, generating more than $160 million by EOY. This is quite a bit less than what Mike Hickey at Janco Partners has recently stated. While the headline reads 4.2 million units for the holiday season, he somehow discounts EA’s 4 million unit estimate by more than 20%, when suggesting $185 million for the quarter. At $60 a pop, his dollar estimate would yield only 3.08 million units. What’s up with that, Mike? EA will need to quickly roll out the marketing brilliance seen with Medal of Honor, to put this title into high gear. We actually hope we are wrong on this one.

While we missed forecasting Fallout: New Vegas’ debut, our model shows they probably did around 1.8 million in the first five days, as opposed to the 1.4 million units VGChartz and others were speculating. Granted, we are all just estimating figures here, but it will be interesting if our models have a 20-25% better accuracy rate than others’ methods. Then again, maybe we’ll be way off on some of these forecasts, and find ourselves taking it out on some unsuspecting n00bs in your favorite multi-player, FPS.

Game on, peoples.

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