Thursday, November 25, 2010

Gran Turismo 5 to Challenge Halo: Reach?

With the much anticipated release by Sony Computer Entertainment of Polyphony Digital’s Gran Turismo 5 finally here, we are seeing some very interesting trends in your collective chatter.

We haven’t seen too many folks wanting to speculate on this title’s sales potential, so we figured we’d throw down the challenge. It appears that Gran Turismo 5 may give Microsoft’s Halo: Reach a run for its’ money this year.

Assuming that the reported numbers for Halo Reach are correct, more than 3 million units sold in 24 hours, generating more than $200 million in sales. and more than 4 million units in the first week, our models say watch out Halo Reach!

We are forecasting that Gran Turismo 5 will sell 2.3 - 2.5 million units worldwide day one, for more than $140 million. We also estimate that first week sales will see between 4.2 - 4.5 million units, for more than $250 million in sales. Will this installment in the series go on to reach the the levels of games past? Like many of you, we don’t think so. Maybe it will top out at 8 - 9 million units, or so, but we’re not so sure this genre has the same staying power as some others. That said, the PS3 has a very loyal fan base that may surprise us all!

Well, did they challenge Halo Reach? If pre-orders exceeded 1.6 million units, then they will match Halo Reach’s first day sales. Our little hedge against a three week delay in release. Regardless, the Gran Turismo franchise will certainly add to its lead over the Halo franchise, and both titles helped make 2010 a great year for gamers.

Let’s end with a mighty THANK YOU! and our best wishes to all of you and your families for a safe and happy holiday season! Enjoy your faves and keep on gaming!

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